Mortgage rates for 2024 and 2025.
30 March 2023
Category Blog
30 March 2023,
Mortgage rates for 2024 and 2025.

The mortgage market in Canada underwent significant changes over the past few years, with rates fluctuating wildly in the last two years.

Between 2015 and 2020, rates were relatively stable, and then the Bank of Canada drastically lowered its prime interest rate to its record low of 0.25%.

In 2020 and 2021, mortgage interest rates in Canada were therefore extremely low, with fixed rates below 2% and variable rates close to 1%.

In 2022, the sharp rise in inflation forced the Bank of Canada to raise its key rate several times. Multiple hikes brought the prime rate from 0.25% to 3.75%.

According to experts, 2023 will be more stable in terms of the mortgage market. But what are the longer term forecasts for 2024 and 2025 in Canada?

Mortgage rate trends: What to watch out for in 2023?

Experts’ opinions on mortgage rates for the year 2023 are, by and large, quite optimistic. While no major rate cuts are expected, many agree that the end of rate hikes has arrived and that the market should stabilize.

Already, many analysts are anticipating that inflation will drop significantly by early 2023, which would be positive for the mortgage market in Canada.


Did you know that you can compare mortgage rates from more than 20 banks in Quebec, online and for free? In fact, mortgage brokers have access to exclusive comparison software. Consult a broker to find the best rate and save money.

Mortgage Rate Prediction for 2024

Let’s take a look at mortgage trends in the medium term – for 2024. What are the experts’ opinions?

So far, many say that it is too early to tell, as the impact of the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes have yet to be felt.

While it is not possible to accurately predict future mortgage rates, it is possible to make assumptions and assess their probability.

Optimistic scenario: Policy rate at 2.00%

If inflation drops significantly in 2023, and the economy cools, the Bank of Canada will most likely lower its policy rate a few times to ease the financial burden on Canadians. We could then see a policy rate around 2.00%.

Realistic scenario: Policy rate at 2.50%

If inflation continues to fall at a slow pace, the Bank of Canada will likely be more cautious and may only grant rate cuts in early 2024.

Pessimistic scenario: Policy rate at 3.50%

If Canada is unable to control inflation, the policy rate could remain at its current level and fall by only a few percentage points or even rise in 2024.

Mortgage Rate Forecast for 2025

With regards to mortgage trends for 2025, only a few experts are willing to make predictions.  This is because mortgage interest rates are directly related to the Bank of Canada’s key interest rate.

The Bank of Canada’s policy rate goes up and down to keep inflation within its target range of 1-3%.

Since governments are actively working to control inflation, it is reasonable to expect that by 2023 and 2024, they should be able to do so, or at least reduce it drastically.


The Bank of Canada's main role is to keep inflation within a target range of 1-3%. It does this by controlling the Bank Rate, which influences all other interest rates in the country. To reduce inflation and achieve its objectives, the Bank of Canada never rules out the possibility of creating a recession, which can be a necessary step towards a decrease in demand for goods and services.

Mortgage Projections 2026 and Beyond

When we talk about 2026 and beyond, it may seem quite too far ahead. 

However, it is not as far away as it may seem. As we have seen over the past five years, the mortgage market in Canada can change dramatically in just two years.

At this point, mortgage experts say it is impossible to accurately predict the state of the market in 2026.

If you have a medium to long-term financing project, it is always difficult to predict mortgage rate trends. We suggest that you talk to a broker to run scenarios and evaluate your project as accurately as possible.


When you consult a mortgage broker to finance your project, the broker must calculate your debt ratios (GDS and TDS) with qualification rates higher than market rates. This protects you in the event of a rate increase.

What factors influence mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates vary depending on the key interest rate, but don’t assume that all banks necessarily offer the same rates.

On the contrary, it is important to understand the different factors that influence rates and to take the time to compare lenders. 

Some of the most important factors include:

It is, therefore, very important to take the time to compare the rates of different banks, especially in a context of regular interest rate changes. Mortgage brokers are there to help you shop around, free of charge.

Long-term mortgage rate forecasts - What do the experts think?

Our partner mortgage brokers are receiving many inquiries from clients these days, wondering how long-term interest rates will change.

Thus, we decided to speak with our biggest partner and present their answers to the most popular questions about long-term mortgage rates.

Will rates continue to increase?

It is not impossible. However, it would be surprising because household debt is very high, and further interest rate increases could cause major defaults across the country. This is not what the banks want. Instead, in the long run, we think we will see a decline and then a stabilization of the market.

Will rates go back down as low as they were before?

No, I don’t think we’re going to see as drastic a drop as we saw during the pandemic between 2020 and 2021. However, we do believe that the days of ultra-low mortgage rates will certainly return in the medium to long term. We just have to be patient and keep an eye out for changes in the market.

How do I find the lowest mortgage rate?

In our opinion, you shouldn’t just sign the rate that your bank offers you, without taking the time to shop around. It’s a huge mistake, and that’s how the banks make their biggest profits. It’s important to compare lenders, even the smaller, lesser known ones, because that’s where you can find lower rates and save money.

What is the best advice you can give?

Never borrow at the limit of your borrowing capacity. For example, if you are assessed to be eligible to borrow $500,000, try to target a budget lower than that limit. This way, if rates go up, you will have some wiggle room that will save you from serious financial worries.

Canada's Key Interest Rates - History (1940-2022)

In order to make forecasts and analyze mortgage rate trends for the future, it is always interesting to look at the past. It is possible to review the history of the Bank of Canada’s key interest rate for the period starting in 1940 until today.

The chart below shows the evolution of the Bank of Canada’s policy rate over the last 80 years since the Bank of Canada was created.

Here are the key facts that can be gleaned:

You can also check the table below to see the status of the policy rate for specific dates.

Source : WOWA


Prime rate
































Canada's Policy Rate - Projection (2023-2029)

If we analyzed the historical chart of the Bank of Canada’s policy rate, we realized that over the last 10 years, we were in a period of low interest rates.

Experts have varying opinions. Historically, current rates are still quite low. However, real estate values have skyrocketed in the last 40 years. The percentage that households are putting towards their mortgages is much higher than it used to be, even with lower rates. This limits the possibility of interest rate and policy rate increases over the next ten years.


The Bank of Canada was created in 1935 with the passage of the Bank of Canada Act. The Bank of Canada was created by the Royal Commission to rebalance the market following the Great Depression of 1929. The Bank of Canada was private at first, but soon became public in 1938.

How to get the best mortgage rate in Canada?

Calculating savings from best mortgage rate.

What is the best strategy to find the best mortgage rates offered in Canada?

First of all, you have to understand that there are the big mortgage lenders that are well-known throughout Canada, among which are:

That being said, there are dozens of smaller mortgage lenders, both virtual and with physical offices, throughout the country. 

Among these are:

As you can see, you have many options. Thus, it is important to shop around to find the best mortgage product and rate. This is where mortgage brokers can be a big help. Fill out our short online form to compare rates from more than 20 banks quickly and without charge.

Shopping for Future Mortgage Rates – Bank vs. Broker

The question arises: should you shop around for your mortgage with your usual bank or take the time to speak with a mortgage broker?

It may seem obvious to those who are used to shopping, but for the majority of buyers and owners, the reflex is often to go directly to consult their bank.

In the coming years, from 2023 to 2030, it will be more important than ever to consult a mortgage broker because interest rate changes will be frequent. Your broker will become your #1 ally to help you save on mortgage interest payments.


Your bank can only offer you its "house" rates, i.e. what they offer directly. The bank will not inform you of other promotional rates offered by other lenders.


Your broker can tell you what the best rate offered by your regular bank is and compare it with all the other offers that mortgage lenders on the market offer in real time.

5-year mortgage rate forecast – 2023 to 2025

The 5-year fixed mortgage rate has been one of the most popular products in Quebec for many years.

It is, therefore, not surprising that our partners receive an extremely high volume of questions regarding this product.

We did the exercise with one of our partner mortgage brokers to make predictions for the next few years.

The rates presented here are for information purposes only. In no case should these rates be taken as guarantees or real forecasts. To know the real rates in effect, refer to a professional mortgage broker.

5-year mortgage rate forecast – 2023 to 2025

Average 5-year fixed rate (end of 2022): 5.50


















Upcoming Mortgage Rates - How can I be notified of changes?

With uncertain economic conditions, inflation and rapid changes in the financial markets, it’s more important than ever to stay up-to-date on mortgage rates.

You’ll want to be notified of the following:

Having a mortgage broker is the best way to stay on top of future interest rate developments in Canada.


Would you like to keep track of mortgage rates, whether they're going up or down? Fill out our form to speak to a broker and subscribe to our exclusive newsletter.

Schedule of Mortgage Rate Changes in Canada

Each year, the Bank of Canada releases its schedule of policy rate announcements for the upcoming year.

The official schedule for 2023 is out, and here are the dates to watch for:

On these dates, the Bank of Canada announces whether it will raise, lower, or keep its key interest rate.

This directly influences the interest and mortgage rates of all banks in the country.

Find the best mortgage rate in 2023- Compare rates from 20+ banks!

Compare mortgage offers from over 20 banks in Canada.

While there is no consensus on what the experts predict for mortgage rates in 2023, 2024, and 2025, it is important to understand that you need to be on the lookout for changes.

If you have a mortgage renewal or refinancing project coming up, we recommend that you speak with a mortgage broker to find the best rate.

Fill out the form on this page to speak with one of our partner brokers in your area!   Our partners will be happy to help you, free of charge, with your financing needs.


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