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Mortgage rate forecast for 2025 in Quebec
The mortgage market has been a real rollercoaster since 2022, and rates have skyrocketed, then decreased a little. The most common question to ask is “What should we expect regarding our mortgage rate in 2025 and 2026?
The last couple of years were certainly not easy.
In March 2020, the government announced containment measures and hundreds of thousands of Quebecers became unemployed.
The banks agreed to put certain loans on hold, and the Bank of Canada announced that it was lowering its key rate to its lowest level, 0.25%.
- Mortgage rates plummeted in May and the summer of 2020 to reach historic lows. At the end of the year, rates were extremely low and this favored real estate markets across the country. In 2021, mortgage rates remained low all year!
- In 2022, due to very high inflation, the Bank of Canada raised its key rate from 0.25% to 3.75%, then to 5% in 2023. This is a drastic increase that has had an impact on all Canadians.
But what should we expect for 2025? Will rates come down quickly?
Discover the experts’ forecasts about mortgage rates for the year 2025!
How to manage the changes in mortgage rates in Quebec?
After a few years of very low mortgage rates, mortgage rates saw a significant increase in Canada.
The Bank of Canada implemented several rate hikes in 2022 and 2023.
Until inflation and the economy, in general, are under control, interest rates seem to be on an upward trend.
But don’t panic. Professionals can advise you and discuss the current situation with you. If you need to talk, feel free to fill out our form and one of our partner mortgage specialists will get in touch with you.
Are you worried about rising interest rates? Speak with one of our partner specialists by filling out our form or calling the following numbers!
What is the mortgage rate forecast for 2025?
After a very difficult 2022, 2023 and 2024, buyers and owners are impatiently waiting to see what happens in the next months or until next year.
In 2022, mortgage rates nearly tripled – something that has rarely happened in Canada.
Now that rates are still high and inflation seems to be on a downward trend, what can we expect for 2025?
2025 should see lower rates
In 2025, expect a more stable mortgage market where rates should not increase or decrease drastically. A slow decrease is the most probable scenario.
It will then be all the more important to take the time to compare mortgage rates from multiple banks or lenders as they each try to attract customers with competitive rates.
The best strategy to find the best mortgage interest rates in 2025
If you have a project that needs financing, we recommend that you discuss it with an independent mortgage broker.
Indeed, mortgage rates in 2025 are not likely to drop significantly, but there are sometimes:
- Promotional offers
- Discounts on certain rates
- Tips to save money
- Etc.
In times when interest rates are high, a good mortgage broker can give you tips on how to save on your mortgage payments.
He can compare the current rates of more than 20 banks, and calculate payment strategies to successfully save interest. Use our form if you want to talk about it with one of our partner brokers.
Mortgage trends for 2026 – what do the experts think?
Now let’s look at the medium and long term. Is 2026 likely to be a more positive year for Canadian households in terms of mortgage financing?
Although it’s still a long way off, several economists are looking positively at the 2026 mortgage market. That being said, the 2026 mortgage forecast takes into account many key factors:
- The impact of the 2025 rates
- The evolution of inflation in the country
- Economic conditions in 2025
- The impact of the new US presidency on Canadian economy
More optimistic experts predict that the drop in mortgage rates could continue in 2026.
Our mortgage predictions for 2025 in Quebec – Positive or negative?
Do you have a purchase, renewal or refinancing project in the next year and you wonder what the interest rates will look like?
The mortgage market in 2025 may still be quite high, but that does not mean that conditions will be negative.
Here are our tips:
- Regularly check the calendar of mortgage rate announcements
- Shop Rates with a Bank-Agnostic Mortgage Broker
- Find tips to save interest on your loan
So what is the finding for 2025 mortgage rates?
FINDING: POSITIVE
A slight rate reduction is possible throughout the year.
Dates of potential Key and Mortgage Rate changes in 2025
The policy rate announcement dates scheduled for 2023 are as follows:
- Wednesday, January 29
- Wednesday, March 12
- Wednesday, April 16
- Wednesday, June 4
- Wednesday, July 30
- Wednesday, September 17
- Wednesday, October 29
- Wednesday, December 10
On these dates, the Bank of Canada announces whether it will maintain its current rate, lower it, or increase it. Put these dates on your calendar if you have a variable rate as this will potentially impact your mortgage payments.
Factors that influence interest rates and economic recovery
What are the factors that will influence interest rates in the future?
Once again, the Governor of the Bank of Canada recently explained that it is the evolution of the pandemic as well as the national economic recovery that will play a huge role.
The Canadian economy shrank by 5.7% in 2020, and between 2021 and 2022, inflation was extremely high.
It will take several years to stabilize the economic situation in Canada, so 2025 and 2026 will continue to be challenging.
Which rate to choose in 2025? – Variable or Fixed
With the current economic conditions, is it more advantageous to choose a fixed or variable rate for your mortgage?
Be aware that there is no absolute right answer to this, and you need to consider your risk tolerance and several assumptions that are not certain.
That being said, here are some things to think about that can help you make your choice.
Why choose a Variable Rate?
Variable rates are often lower than fixed rates. For example, when you can have a variable rate of 3.90%, the lowest mortgage rates are around 5-6%. Even if rates increase, it would take some time to match the fixed rate. In the long term, it is proven that a homeowner wins by choosing a variable rate. In addition, the mortgage penalty in the event of cancellation is only 3 months of interest.
Why choose a Fixed Rate?
Fixed rates have increased in recent months. If you like security and don’t want to stress about possible rate hikes, securing a fixed rate may be to your advantage.
As of this writing, Canada’s 5-year Conventional Mortgage Lending Rate is at 6.49%, before reductions.
That being said, you should know that the penalty for early termination is much higher, and can exceed $10,000. For security, you may want to go with a fixed rate.
Mortgage rates in effect at the beginning of 2025
Now that we know that rates will most likely move in 2025, what can we expect in terms of mortgage rate offers in the market?
We consulted the databases and websites of major financial institutions in the country to create a comparative table presenting some of the best rate offers at the start of 2025.
Please note that the rates here are for information only, that they may vary without notice, and that no guarantee is offered. To know the current rates at the time of your search, speak with a partner mortgage broker by filling out our free form.
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|
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Bank of Montreal | Fixed 5 years | 4.59% |
National Bank | Fixed 5 years | 4.95% |
Royal Bank | Fixed 5 years | 4.89% |
CIBC | Fixed 5 years | 4.95% |
Tangerine | Fixed 5 years | 4.79% |
TD Bank | Fixed 3 years | 5.09% |
Scotiabank | Fixed 5 year | 5.90% |
First National Financial | Fixed 5 years | 4.64% |
Desjardins | Open variable 5 years | 4.95% |
**For illustration purposes only. No rate guarantee. Get current rates by filling out our short online form.
Check your borrowing capacity in 2 minutes!
While rates are low, now could be a good time to take action and buy your next property.
The first step in any buying project, however, is to know how much you can afford.
A mortgage broker can assess your borrowing capacity (the maximum amount of mortgage that the banks will agree to lend you).
For example, your mortgage broker can tell you if you can afford:
- $250,000 house
- $350,000 house
- $450,000 house
- $600,000 house
- House of $750,000 and +
Borrowing capacity calculations are based on your income and your debt. It is the ABD and ATD ratios that are used in the calculation of a client’s borrowing capacity.
To know YOUR maximum borrowing capacity, complete the free form on this page.
Book the best mortgage rate for 2025
As you can see from the previous rate table, mortgage rates are quite high and competitive.
It’s definitely a good time to shop around and book your rate for 2025 because the slightest difference in rates can save a fortune.
Did you know that you can reserve and hold a mortgage rate up to 4 months before your planned purchase or renewal?
In fact, you can get pre-approved up to 120 days before closing a transaction.
So don’t wait until the last minute to shop. Instead, compare rates with an expert in advance and book the best deal available!
You just have to use the free form on this page and a professional partner broker will take care of your account, free of charge.
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Fill out the form below and a mortgage broker from your area will rapidly contact you to help you find the best possible offer.
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